Rising Debt and its Potential Consequences: Canada’s New Normal?

We need to understand where we are in the debt super cycle to inform our investment decision making.

Artificial Intelligence: The Return of The Centaurs

Recent AI breakthroughs are underscoring the power of the centaur model—humans + machines—creating something more potent than either model operating independently.

The Case for Non-Predictive Decision Making

In our view, market participants systematically underestimate the importance of vulnerabilities while correspondingly overestimating the importance of triggers. Why?

Inflation’s One-Two Punch

It’s inflation’s second punch that can deliver a blow that investors may not be expecting.

‘Twas the week before Christmas

'Twas the week before Christmas, thus time to review—the economic story of 2022.

Beware the linearity bias

We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.

The quality conundrum

The conundrum for investors these days is the trade-off between the value of quality and price to pay for it. 

Be aware, but don’t despair!

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

~Mark Twain

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, so let's have some fun. Mawer recaps the main themes of 2021.

Prepare don't predict

How an engineering principle can improve investment risk management.

On modern monetary theory

We explore the evolution of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and the notable economic ideas on which it is based. We highlight some notable criticisms and discuss implications of MMT for economic policy and financial markets. Our purpose is less focused on opining whether MMT is fundamentally sound, but rather aimed at understanding its development and how the ground may shift if indeed MMT-based policies are more widely embraced.

Where I’m seeing value in emerging markets

I’ve been revisiting Philip Fisher’s Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits recently. Scanning the opportunity set in emerging markets, I’ve been trying to imagine what Fisher would have made of the current investment landscape.

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, (and you know it’s true), COVID looms large in our annual review.

Deep dive: DevOps | EP109

What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.

Creativity vs. Frameworks: How to build a better decision-making environment | EP108

On building a “global investment franchise” and balancing the trade-offs between creativity, efficiency, and process to build a consistent environment for better investment decisions.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s emerging markets equity portfolio | EP107

Russia, the potential parallels to Taiwan and China, and macro to micro portfolio considerations in an inflationary environment.

Quarterly Update | Q1 2022 | EP106

CIO Paul Moroz shares his take on what’s happening in the markets, some of the underlying factors behind recent performance, and a reminder that the wheels of capitalism will continue to turn.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s U.S. equity portfolio | EP105

Portfolio Managers Grayson Witcher and Colin Wong share market observations, industries where fundamentals are shifting, and a few recent additions to the portfolio.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s EAFE large cap portfolio | EP104

Jim Hall (chair, head of our risk management process, and portfolio manager) shares his overall observations on prevailing macroeconomic risks—and the effects on our process and the EAFE large cap portfolio.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s global equity portfolio | EP103

How we achieve balance in the portfolio, manage hubris, and have accounted for inflation risk in our investment process.

Post-mortem: Learnings from 2021 | EP102

Chief Investment Officer, Paul Moroz, reflects on notable learnings from 2021 and how time and experience still clarify the most in investing—and life.

The quest for “holy compounders” | EP101

Our systematic assessment framework to narrow the probabilities in analysing fast-growing technology companies in an effort to improve our odds of identifying those elusive “holy compounders.”

Quarterly update | Q4 2021 | EP100

The major themes of Q4 and a look ahead to 2022.

Deep dive: Inflation | EP99

Inflation cycles throughout history, Keynes vs. monetarists, and why the enemy is…still us.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian bond portfolio | EP98

Global debt, China’s credit cycle, shifting monetary and fiscal policy objectives, and the three scenarios we are thinking about this year.